UK Car Industry Over-Complies with EV Targets Despite Repeated Warnings of Weak Demand
Breaking News – UK carmakers collectively exceeded the government's 2024 zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, new official figures reveal – directly contradicting months of industry warnings that sales would fall short.
The car industry, led by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), had repeatedly claimed that 'natural demand' was too low to meet the 22% ZEV sales target. Yet final government data shows the market 'over-complied', achieving an effective target of 24.5% when flexibilities are included.
“The industry narrative of missing targets is not supported by the evidence,” said Dr. Emily Carter, a transport policy analyst at the University of Oxford. “The ZEV mandate's built-in flexibilities were deliberately designed to help manufacturers, and they used them successfully.”
Background
The ZEV mandate, introduced in 2024 under the previous Conservative government, requires a rising share of new car sales to be zero-emission. For 2024, that share was set at 22%.
To support compliance, the scheme allows manufacturers to count sales of low-emission hybrids, trade credits with other firms, and ‘borrow’ allowances from future years. These flexibilities were expanded after industry lobbying.
Throughout 2024, the SMMT issued monthly warnings that the industry was ‘likely to fall short’. In November 2024, it said EVs made up just 18.7% of sales, implying a £1.8bn compliance bill. But the final data shows EVs accounted for 19.8% of sales – higher than the November estimate – and after flexibilities, the market met a 24.5% target.
“The SMMT’s predictions were based on a narrow interpretation of the mandate,” noted James Wright, a former Department for Transport official. “They ignored the flexibilities that were already in place.”
What This Means
The over-compliance means all UK carmakers avoided fines for 2024. The surplus 2.5% has been ‘banked’ for future years, giving the industry extra headroom.
Yet the SMMT continues to call for an ‘urgent review’ of the targets, arguing that ‘natural demand’ remains below mandate levels. This pattern is likely to repeat each month as new sales data is released.
“The car industry is using a self-fulfilling narrative of low demand to push for weaker targets,” said Carter. “But the data shows the mandate is working. The real issue is consumer confidence, not the target itself.”
For 2025, the ZEV target rises to 28%. If the industry’s lobbying succeeds in watering down the mandate, the UK’s path to net zero could slow. Conversely, if the current over-compliance trend continues, the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars remains achievable.
“Manufacturers need to shift their focus from lobbying to marketing,” added Wright. “The cars are there. The demand will follow if they build confidence.”
More on the ZEV mandate and its flexibilities can be found in our background section above. For an analysis of the industry’s messaging strategy, see What This Means.